Jump to content
RobVOL

Preseason ESPN College Football SP+ Rankings

Recommended Posts

This was a little interesting:

 

 

Credit to ESPN:

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/28687236/preseason-sp+-college-football-rankings-alabama-back-no-1

 

 

Each offseason, after the recruiting season has been finalized and the first major wave of transfer portal entries has come and gone, I publish preliminary SP+ ratings for the coming season. I base these projections on three primary factors, weighted by their predictiveness:

1. Returning production. Last week we published my initial returning production rankings for 2020, based on players graduating, leaving for the pros, transferring, etc. Estimating improvement or regression based on these percentages and applying it to last year's SP+ ratings accounts for more than 50% of the overall numbers below.

2. Recent recruiting. After determining how much of last year's team is being brought back, the next step is to determine the caliber of the players who will be filling in the missing returning production. To do that, I use a weighted mix of recent recruiting rankings. They primarily pull from the past two recruiting classes, but I have begun to incorporate older classes as well, to a lesser degree. No matter what the "stars don't matter" crowd will tell you, recruiting rankings are extremely predictive, and these projections are more effective because of them.

3. Recent history. While last year's SP+ ratings are taken into account with the returning production estimates above, I've found that involving previous years' performances as well gives us a nice way of estimating overall program health. It stands to reason that a team that has played well for one year is less likely to duplicate that effort than a team that has been good for years on end (and vice versa), right? Recent history accounts for less than 10% of the overall projections; it is a minor factor, but the projections are better with it than without.

Using this mix for last year's projections was incredibly effective, as evidenced by SP+'s 58% performance against the spread in the first five weeks of last season. Hopefully this year's will be as effective.

I will update these numbers in August, once further transfers, injuries and more can be taken into account. But here are the estimates to date.

A reminder on SP+: It's a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. I created the system at Football Outsiders in 2008, and as my experience with both college football and its stats has grown, I have made quite a few tweaks to the system. SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing. That is important to remember. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling -- no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you're lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you're strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.

 

 

Overall SP+ Rankings

Team
Proj. SP+ Offense Defense
1. Alabama 30.9 46.1 (1) 15.2 (8)
2. Ohio St. 29.7 44.2 (3) 14.5 (5)
3. Clemson 27.0 43.4 (4) 16.4 (13)
4. Georgia 25.8 32.3 (33) 6.4 (1)
5. Penn St. 23.8 39.0 (11) 15.3 (11)
6. LSU 23.4 41.9 (5) 18.6 (23)
7. Florida 23.1 37.6 (12) 14.5 (6)
8. Oklahoma 22.6 44.9 (2) 22.3 (36)
9. Wisconsin 21.6 36.0 (17) 14.3 (4)
10. Texas A&M 20.5 37.0 (15) 16.5 (15)
11. Auburn 20.3 34.5 (21) 14.2 (3)
12. Notre Dame 18.5 37.6 (13) 19.1 (24)
13. Oregon 18.1 29.8 (51) 11.8 (2)
14. Texas 17.0 40.3 (7) 23.3 (42)
15. USC 16.1 39.6 (9) 23.6 (43)
16. Michigan 16.1 32.4 (31) 16.4 (14)
17. N. Carolina 16.0 39.7 (8) 23.7 (44)
18. UCF 14.8 34.1 (26) 19.3 (26)
19. Tennessee 14.7 29.5 (56) 14.8 (7)
20. Minnesota 13.9 40.8 (6) 26.9 (58)
21. Oklahoma St. 12.9 35.5 (18) 22.6 (38)
22. Memphis 12.8 36.7 (16) 24.0 (46)
23. Miami 12.6 27.9 (63) 15.2 (9)
24. Washington 12.6 27.9 (62) 15.2 (10)
25. Nebraska 12.5 39.2 (10) 26.7 (55)
26. Florida St. 12.0 32.6 (30) 20.6 (33)
27. Indiana 11.6 34.4 (22) 22.7 (39)
28. Kentucky 11.6 30.7 (40) 19.1 (25)
29. Iowa 11.0 27.7 (65) 16.6 (16)
30. Iowa St. 10.6 29.9 (48) 19.3 (27)
31. Utah 10.3 34.1 (25) 23.8 (45)
32. Va. Tech 10.2 29.9 (46) 19.7 (29)
33. Baylor 10.1 34.3 (23) 24.2 (47)
34. Cincinnati 9.6 29.0 (57) 19.4 (28)
35. S. Carolina 9.5 26.5 (79) 17.0 (19)
36. TCU 9.5 29.8 (53) 20.3 (32)
37. Ole Miss 8.5 31.3 (37) 22.8 (40)
38. Boise St. 8.4 31.3 (36) 22.9 (41)
39. App. St. 7.5 35.4 (19) 27.9 (66)
40. Arizona St. 6.8 27.0 (73) 20.2 (31)
41. Louisville 6.7 37.2 (14) 30.5 (84)
42. Pittsburgh 6.0 22.4 (103) 16.4 (12)
43. Miss. St. 5.3 34.2 (24) 28.9 (74)
44. Virginia 5.2 27.7 (64) 22.5 (37)
45. Michigan St. 4.6 22.1 (106) 17.4 (21)
46. Purdue 4.2 32.8 (29) 28.5 (70)
47. Wash. St. 4.2 35.1 (20) 30.9 (86)
48. Stanford 4.2 31.1 (39) 26.9 (57)
49. Missouri 4.1 20.9 (108) 16.9 (18)
50. Northwestern 3.8 20.6 (110) 16.8 (17)
51. Louisiana 3.5 33.8 (27) 30.3 (82)
52. California 3.0 29.8 (49) 26.9 (56)
53. BYU 2.7 29.7 (54) 27.0 (59)
54. Kansas St. 2.4 27.6 (66) 25.2 (50)
55. Navy 1.9 30.3 (42) 28.4 (69)
56. SMU 1.6 33.8 (28) 32.2 (94)
57. WKU 1.5 19.9 (112) 18.4 (22)
58. Ga. Tech 1.3 22.3 (104) 21.0 (35)
59. Texas Tech 0.7 30.1 (43) 29.4 (76)
60. UCLA 0.5 32.3 (32) 31.8 (90)
61. Illinois 0.5 26.3 (81) 25.8 (51)
62. NC St. 0.2 26.8 (76) 26.6 (53)
63. Houston 0.2 30.3 (41) 30.2 (81)
64. W. Virginia -1.3 26.2 (82) 27.5 (61)
65. Air Force -1.4 31.2 (38) 32.6 (97)
66. Maryland -1.4 28.4 (59) 29.9 (78)
67. Ohio -1.5 31.5 (34) 33.1 (99)
68. UAB -1.6 18.1 (118) 19.7 (30)
69. Duke -1.7 19.0 (116) 20.7 (34)
70. FAU -2.1 27.4 (67) 29.5 (77)
71. Boston Coll. -2.2 29.8 (52) 32.0 (92)
72. Temple -2.2 24.5 (90) 26.7 (54)
73. Tulane -2.5 25.1 (86) 27.6 (62)
74. SDSU -2.5 14.6 (127) 17.2 (20)
75. Oregon St. -2.9 27.0 (72) 29.9 (79)
76. Arkansas -3.1 24.8 (88) 27.9 (67)
77. Marshall -3.2 24.5 (91) 27.7 (63)
78. Arizona -3.2 30.0 (45) 33.3 (100)
79. Colorado St. -3.4 27.1 (70) 30.5 (83)
80. Buffalo -3.5 24.3 (93) 27.7 (64)
81. Wake Forest -3.7 23.5 (99) 27.2 (60)
82. CMU -4.1 24.5 (89) 28.5 (71)
83. USF -4.3 20.8 (109) 25.1 (48)
84. Ball St. -4.4 27.3 (68) 31.8 (89)
85. Troy -4.5 29.5 (55) 34.1 (104)
86. Arkansas St. -5.0 31.3 (35) 36.3 (112)
87. So. Miss -5.0 23.9 (95) 28.9 (73)
88. Tulsa -5.2 27.2 (69) 32.3 (95)
89. Ga. Southern -5.3 23.6 (97) 29.0 (75)
90. Wyoming -5.5 19.6 (114) 25.2 (49)
91. Colorado -5.7 26.8 (75) 32.5 (96)
92. La. Tech -6.2 24.9 (87) 31.1 (87)
93. Toledo -6.3 28.6 (58) 34.9 (108)
94. Fresno St. -6.4 27.9 (61) 34.3 (106)
95. Syracuse -6.4 25.5 (85) 31.9 (91)
96. ECU -7.1 28.0 (60) 35.1 (109)
97. WMU -7.3 26.5 (78) 33.8 (103)
98. Miami-OH -7.5 23.1 (101) 30.6 (85)
99. Hawaii -7.6 30.1 (44) 37.6 (117)
100. Utah St. -8.1 24.1 (94) 32.2 (93)
101. Vanderbilt -8.3 17.8 (121) 26.1 (52)
102. Rutgers -8.4 19.7 (113) 28.1 (68)
103. Georgia St. -8.5 27.0 (71) 35.5 (111)
104. Army -8.9 26.6 (77) 35.5 (110)
105. Liberty -9.8 24.4 (92) 34.2 (105)
106. MTSU -9.8 29.8 (50) 39.6 (122)
107. Charlotte -10.1 29.9 (47) 40.0 (123)
108. SJSU -10.2 26.9 (74) 37.1 (115)
109. Coastal Caro. -10.2 26.3 (80) 36.6 (113)
110. Nevada -10.9 20.6 (111) 31.4 (88)
111. N. Texas -12.7 21.6 (107) 34.3 (107)
112. Kent St. -12.9 26.1 (83) 39.0 (120)
113. Kansas -13.0 23.7 (96) 36.7 (114)
114. FIU -13.2 15.5 (125) 28.7 (72)
115. Rice -13.9 14.0 (128) 27.9 (65)
116. EMU -14.5 25.5 (84) 40.0 (124)
117. NIU -14.9 18.0 (119) 32.9 (98)
118. UL-Monroe -15.8 23.6 (98) 39.4 (121)
119. S. Alabama -16.2 17.6 (122) 33.8 (102)
120. ODU -16.9 13.2 (130) 30.1 (80)
121. UNLV -17.2 23.5 (100) 40.7 (126)
122. New Mexico -17.4 22.5 (102) 40.0 (125)
123. Texas St. -19.5 18.1 (117) 37.6 (116)
124. UTSA -19.5 22.2 (105) 41.7 (127)
125. Akron -19.8 13.5 (129) 33.3 (101)
126. UConn -21.4 17.4 (123) 38.9 (119)
127. BGSU -22.2 15.6 (124) 37.8 (118)
128. NMSU -23.3 19.1 (115) 42.4 (128)
129. UMass -29.6 18.0 (120) 47.6 (130)
130. UTEP -30.0 15.3 (126) 45.3 (129)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That 56 ranking for offense hurts.  If some of the freshmen can step up we should improve that number.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
32 minutes ago, VolNick said:

That 56 ranking for offense hurts.  If some of the freshmen can step up we should improve that number.

We also need major improvement from our 5th year senior.  :censored:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, XLVol said:

We also need major improvement from our 5th year senior.  :censored:

Good lordy :givemebeer:and an AMEN!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

My 2020 SEC Football Predictions

 

SEC East

 

1-Georgia 10-2 and 6-2 in the SEC

2-Tennessee 9-3 and 5-3 in the SEC

2-Florida 9-3 and 5-3 in the SEC

4-Kentucky 7-5 and 3-5 in the SEC

5-South Carolina 5-7 and 2-6 in the SEC

5-Missouri 4-8 and 2-6 in the SEC

6-Vanderbilt 1-11 and 0-8 in the SEC

 

SEC West

 

1-LSU 11-1 and 7-1 in the SEC

1-Alabama 11-1 and 7-1 in the SEC

3-Texas A&M 10-2 and 6-2 in the SEC

4-Auburn 9-3 and 5-3 in the SEC

5-Mississippi State 8-4 and 4-4 in the SEC

6-Ole Miss 5-7 and 2-6 in the SEC

7-Arkansas 3-9 and 0-8 in the SEC

 

SEC Championship Game

 

LSU beats Georgia

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 2/13/2020 at 1:17 PM, XLVol said:

We also need major improvement from our 5th year senior.  :censored:

Seems like he is a 7-8 year senior.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 2/14/2020 at 6:41 PM, VolNick said:

Seems like he is a 7-8 year senior.

He’s been at UT long enough to get 5 degrees. He needs to get a masters degree in removing his head from his ass before the season starts.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

×